A Proposal to Discern the Slope of the Curve of Ever-Accumulating Bad Luck
I Intro
We propose the following experiment: By performing various bad-luck-inducing tasks (“B.L.I.T.S.”) at specified intervals, + recording any incidences of bad luck throughout a specified period (probably 6 weeks plus a 1 week baseline), we should be able to determine the (general) slope of deliberately accumulated bad luck (D.A.B.L.?).
After a baseline week is taken, we recommend (tentatively) that one BLIT is performed once per week, for 6 weeks. This information will head each week’s standard chart (SC) that our subjects (hereafter dubbed “Misfortunauts”) keep, logging all incidences of bad luck, + a subjective score of the bad luck’s intensity. Likely, we will also log all incidences of good luck + of the good luck’s intensity (see below.)
Either of 3 graphs seem likely. Namely:
(insert pic)
After the baseline week, and each week thereafter, our misfortunauts gather together + perform a BLIT. Ideally, we will run 3 groups of 12 misfortunauts each as isolated trials, so what I mean here is that (again, ideally) each group of 12 misfortunauts will meet within their trial groups, and not among groups, as they might be on different weeks, + the sequence of BLITS will remain the same across all trials, so as to note whether different BLITS create different levels of bad luck (which could then be determined by a new set of trials with different sequences of the same BLITS (e.g. randomized BLITS + alternately lite + heavy BLITS, you get the idea).
Anyway, each week a different BLIT is performed at a specified time + location. An example schedule could be:
Week 1 BLIT – Open umbrella indoors
Week 2 BLIT – Walk under ladder
Week 3 BLIT – Break glass
Week 4 BLIT – Spill salt
Week 5 BLIT – Put hat on bed
Week 6 BLIT – Black cat crosses path
Regarding subject mortality: We will debrief any retiring misfortunauts + will record the interview if possible. Retiring misfortunauts are also encouraged to be as detailed as possible in the “Misfortunauts Notes” section of the SC on the day he/she retires. The usefulness of incomplete data sets is yet to be determined.
Graph A seems, at first blush, most likely, cos just about everything can be described as a negatively-accelerating curve (diminishing returns, learning curve, etc.) Upon further reflection, graph B seems more in the nature of bad luck itself. Indeed, it seems to bring the graph itself into its realm—“when it rains, it pours” + Murphy’s Law generally considered, for example, both recommend this result.
The summation of both curves (diminishing returns and “when it rains it pours” are equally true, for example) could well result in Graph C. Of course, we could get C for entirely different reasons, hopefully laid bare within our data sets.
Factoring in a (presumed) decrease in good luck, it should be noted, could well result in Curve B when plotted from a result based on Curve C, or simply flatten the slope of C. A post-factored B derived from a baseline of Slope C would indicate a non-parallel process regarding the distribution of good luck compared to bad luck, + these are the sorts of concerns that will inform future experiments.
Again, the above is merely an example of how the data could be handled. Obviously, good-luck factored graphs generated from the bad luck graphs could well go anywhere.
II Procedure
We need 12 volunteer subjects per trial, and expect a subject mortality as highs as 6. The misfortunauts log all of their encounters with bad luck, and assign it a subjective inensity score; 1-10, with 10 being the most intense, throughout the course of each day for one week, before performing any BLITS. Likewise, they will log all encounters with good luck, and assign an intensity to it, although the usefulness of this data set is currently unclear. This will provide each misfortunaut with a baseline of bad luck, + can be thought of as “Week Zero.”
The misfortunauts will keep the logs on the standard chart. Enclosed example follows.
After 7 weeks (i.e. 6 BLITS + the baseline) we will consider each misfortunauts data set complete, + record interviews with the remaining misfortunauts.
III Preliminary Methodological Considerations
Data analysis could yield any # of useful quotients + products, for example a “Bad Luck Quotient” of average intensity divided by average # of events, or a good/bad ratio score based on # of events divided by average intensity for good over bad luck, each to be completed daily. These are both speculative, + may or may not arise as artifacts of the data. Certainly, we will start with our simplest plots + relate all discernable variables to these graphs until the data begins to speak to us.
Upon reflection, maybe our first experiment should consist of 3 trials of differently-ordered BLITS, so that Misfortunaut Group One BLITS 1,2,3,4,5,6; Group 2: 6,5,4,3,2,1; + Group 3 either randomized or counterweighted to any “lumps” in the graphs of the first 2 groups. (“Lumps” would indicate a week of relatively higher intensity bad luck for a given week’s BLIT. By changing the order we can potentially isolate higher intensity BLITS + smooth our curve on Group 3. Still, general rigor to aid reproduceability recommends keeping BLITS the same across all trials. I’m doubtful we could get nine groups of misfortunauts for a thorough run, tho, + differently-scheduled BLITS for three trials seems (barely) feasible. We could be more thorough if the grant money would roll in…
IV Summing Up
We run the experiment, we collect the data. For purely aesthetic reasons, the space wherein BLITS are performed can be open to the public. Videotape of BLITS is recommended, as it might yield valuable anecdotal material from the misfortunauts. Weekly interviews are also possible.
Once we’ve collected the data, we run it thru its paces + see what conclusions we draw.
The data, the analysis, such anecdotal material from the misfortunauts that may be useful, + conclusions are to be published, + possibly a videotape featuring the BLITS + interviews with misfortunauts will be made available.
Anyone interested in being a misfortunaut can contact Tony_Woollardathotmaildotcom.
Misfortunaut’s Standard Chart
Week #________________
Day #_________________
BLIT__________________________
Event # Time Type Description Intensity
(G or B) (Brief) (1-10)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Misfortunaut’s Notes: